NOTE: The italics represent the accuracy of the predictions as of 12/31/01
#01
- The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: The tried and true
basics of business will be back – to remind us of the old-fashioned principles
that still seem to work, even in this new Internet-enabled world. Profitability,
revenues and proven processes will be key. (Correct)
#02 - The
New Economic Environment: Although we are already mired in the New Economy,
we are just at the beginning of the changes, as brick and mortar companies race
to be successful online, and dot.coms try to dethrone established companies’
brands. There will be more consolidation, hybrids, partnering, and new business
models that will shift the mix and balance of power. (Correct)
#03
- A New Internet-enabled World: In the not too distant future, the use of
the Internet will be routine, rather like electricity, as the comfort level with
the technology and this method of doing business evolves. Not only will more of
our work and personal lives be connected because of the evolving technology infrastructure,
but more integrated as well. Processes and functions that we use in the workplace
will make their way into our homes. A total Internet-enabled world where every
IP appliance can coordinate an exchange transaction with or without a human guide,
is right around the corner. (Partially correct)
#04 - Customers
Rule: With the Internet, customers have gained considerable power to choose
with whom they will do business, where and when. The need for intense customer
focus and exemplary customer service will continue into the future, as customers
remain central to the growth of e-commerce. (Partially correct)
#05
- Better, Faster and Maybe Cheaper: With continued learning and experimentation,
companies will build better products and services by utilizing the multiple capabilities
of their own companies and also their partners. Price may still be a determinant
in customers’ buying decisions, but value received is becoming more important
than price by itself. New ways to conduct business enabled by technology will
lead to many new opportunities for companies, with improved choices for customers
and more efficient payment mechanisms for the exchange of value between parties.
(Correct)
#06 - Business Models and Value Webs: Just when
you thought things were settling down with business models, be prepared for more
changes. Improvements in efficiency of the supply chain and logistics, disintermediation
and continuing complex are part of the future. (Correct)
#07 - New Standards
and Rules Create Opportunity: There has been much controversy and discussion
about privacy and security and how it affects e-commerce. Quite often, new regulations
and laws can be perceived as just more bureaucracy that gets in the way of doing
business. However, as security issues are mitigated and standards are commonly
deployed for security and privacy, new opportunities will actually be created
for business. (Correct)
#08 - Evolving Infrastructure and Tools:
Many advances have been made in integrating front office and back office systems
both in a company and via the ASP/BSP model. Technologies that improve speed,
collaboration or integration of processes will be a requirement for survival and
growth in the future. (Correct)
#09 - The New Face of Marketing:
As companies continue to wrestle with issues about online and offline branding,
we are entering a new era of personalization. Marketing will be faced with implementing
new approaches in the Internet-enabled world. (Correct)
#10 -
New Dimensions for Growth and Evolution: As today’s leaders make decisions
about tomorrow’s growth, there are many factors at work in this new environment
that will make a huge impact. Technologies such as wireless and portable computing
will provide more ways to access the Internet, and require companies to provide
content accordingly. The world marketplace means greater demand for products and
services, and companies need to figure out how to build businesses across geographic
boundaries. We are faced with much growth in the next few years. Whether it happens
slowly or quickly, we all need to be armed with the lessons we have learned so
far to be better prepared to meet all the challenges of the brave new world.
(Correct)
Bonus Trend - Peer-to-Peer Commerce Takes Off: Ebay
is remarkably successful and first coined the concept of C-C commerce. Regardless
of whether Napster actually survives, it's existence will have resulted in the
morphing of the music industry. Napster also helped demonstrate that peer-to-peer
commerce may be the most widely participated business model on the Internet. Having
passed legislation of digital signatures, with SET (Secure Electronic Transactions)
individuals can swap digital files, and create an encrypted transaction contract;
non-repudiation of the event between the buyer and seller. Individuals will begin
to conduct peer-to-peer commerce using digital cash, with new and existing players
trying to be the financial intermediary. (Correct - with a vengence)
