NOTE: The italics represent the accuracy of the predictions as of 12/31/00
#01
- B-to-B Growth Continues its Dramatic Pace: B-to-B growth will continue at
its dramatic 1999 pace, leading to more liquidity in the B-to-B exchanges and
inter-organizational virtual enterprises. Part of this growth will stem from the
B-to-B practitioners borrowing successful techniques already proven in the B-to-C
marketplace. (Correct)
#02 - M&A Activity Escalates: Private,
public, traditional and newly created corporate venture capital funds will increase
the pace of mergers and acquisitions. We will continue to see the "dot.com's"
snapping up physical real estate. In addition to technology and market share as
reasons for acquisition, companies will be acquired for their employee base (technical
and managerial). (Correct)
#03 - Privacy Concerns Increase:
Privacy concerns will increase in the U.S. as the public becomes more aware of
how their Web site activity can be tracked, profiled, and merged with data collected
from multiple off-line sources to reveal very "personal" information
about themselves. (Correct - with a vengence)
#04 - Dynamic Pricing
Reaches Most Industries: Dynamic pricing will extend into numerous industries
via the name-your-own-price model (such as Priceline) and the Auction (such as
Ebay) model. (Didn't significantly materialize)
#05 - ASP's Capabilities
Expand: ASP's (Application Service Providers) will continue to increase the
quantity and quality of their customers and the robustness of their service offerings.
The ASP model, as it becomes more pervasive, will lead to a dramatic change in
how the software industry produces and distributes software. (Correct)
#06
- Wireless Applications Become More Common: Wireless Internet access will
have rapid adoption in the U.S., possibly catching up to Europe. Wireless technology
will be incorporated into standard business operations, will be used to deliver
in-store competitive pricing, and remote e-mail anywhere, contributing to a steep
rise in online usage. (First part, silly prediction, second part happened)
#07
- Free Extends into B-to-B Space: "Free" continues as a B-to-C (business-to-consumer)
e-commerce model and extends into the B-to-B (business-to-business) world. (Didn't
significantly materialize)
#08 - Customer-Centric Corporate Restructuring:
For the Global 2000 companies that adapt and integrate the Internet into their
businesses, a customer-centric view will start reshaping their culture and infrastructure.
(Only partially correct)
#09 - Executive Inability to Morph:
The majority of Global 2000 corporations will recognize that e-commerce is a reality
they must embrace, but the majority of top executives will be unable to "morph"
their corporations into holistic Internet-enabled entities. (Correct - few
exceptions)
#10 - Expanded ECM Deployment: Brick-and-mortar companies
will continue to deploy e-commerce efforts that integrate with their core business.
After Y2K preparation and cleanup, e-commerce will hit the business world like
a tidal wave. Year 2000 will see a significant increase in the number of traditional
companies that extend their brands onto the Web and meld on and off-line marketing
activities. (Correct)
#Bonus Trend - Electronic Wallet Acceptance:
Major in-roads will be made in the acceptance of electronic wallets. Driven by
the success (and partial frustration) of the 1999 Christmas shopping season, consumers
will be looking for an easier, quicker shopping experience. (Didn't happen)
