NOTE: The italics represent the accuracy of the predictions as of 12/31/02
#01
- Increased Security and Safety Focus: Security through smart chips and retinal
identification will find increased acceptance with the call for a national (and
ultimately a worldwide) Smart Card based identification system will gain significant
momentum.(correct)
#02 - Revenue (not at the Expense of Margin)
will be the Primary Driver: In addition to traditional and Internet-based
revenue, the metrics of Web-assisted and Web-shifted revenue will come into vogue.
(partial)
#03 - Companies will Start Dropping the "E":
The holistic corporation will realize that business is business, regardless of
the medium used to conduct it. E-Commerce implementations will focus on delivering
the total end-to-end solution. (partial)
#04 - Late 2002 Recovery:
After the overall corporate purge of excess and obsolete inventory in mid-to-late
2001, companies will start reinvesting in the goods and services it needs to survive
and create profitable entities. This, coupled with the money spent on the US war
efforts, will bring a slight US recovery in late Q3, 2002. (no)
#05
- Major Industry Consolidation: With the capital markets remaining difficult
to raise money, there'll be a continued consolidation in the business world as
both traditional and dot.com companies continue to be acquired or run out of money
and go out of business. (correct)
#06 - Customer Experience will
Become Vogue: Although companies have talked about the customer being king,
this philosophy is paid only lip service in a majority of companies. In 2002,
we'll see the position of CCEO "Chief Customer Experience Officer" starts
to proliferate among companies. The lifetime value of the customer will be a key
focus of the CCEO. (no)
#07 - Functions vs. Features: The
user community will pay more attention to the functions that products deliver
as opposed to the features (bells and whistles) they have. Web services are well
positioned to help make this trend a reality. (correct)
#08 -
Collaborative Commerce Grows and Meets P2P: Companies will continue to grow
their value Web relationships and strive to increase efficiency among the participants.
Peer to peer technology and processes find their way in the B2B space helping
improve the efficiency of many collaborative efforts. Additionally, there will
be an increased focus on sharing useful "confidential" data among participants
of the value Web. (no)
#09 - "Blended Solutions" is
the Major New Buzzphrase: Making the transition from the on-line learning
space, blended solutions become vogue as product and service companies deliver
blended (integrated on-line and on-ground) solutions to their customers. (no)
#10
- "Transparent Commerce" is Another New Buzzphrase: Also being bantered
around as u-commerce (Ubiquitous Commerce), this is where commerce occurs automatically
without getting in the way of our lives. Automatic bridge tolls and stop light
violations, as well as product recommendations from trusted sources that automatically
turn into sales, are good examples of what we'll see. (no)
Bonus
Trend 1: Prediction of key technology/classes of applications that will experience
growth:
- The Killer Apps: Blended Customer Service Solutions, P2P
for both Consumers and Businesses (Collaborative Commerce), Self-Service for both
Consumers and Businesses
- Other Areas of Growth: Security, Instant Messaging
Video Conferencing, Smart Card Identification, IP Telephony Location-based Commerce,
Mobile Applications, Collaborative Commerce, 1x1 Marketing Tied to Metrics, Pay-Per-View
Content
Bonus Trend 2: The Value Equation: Companies will
start using the Value Equation to ensure they are creating value today and will
continue to do so well into the future (okay, this one is self-promotion).
